Qiimaha caadiga ah ee US Shale saliidda ee 2014

warbaahinta adduunka ayaa si buuxda Dhectuuro dadweynaha, bixinta xaqiiqada ah in "kacaankii Shale" ayaa ka dhacay dalka Mareykanka. Iyada oo ku saleysan waxa xaqiiqooyinka weedhahan waxaa laga yaabaa in ay khuseyso? Waxaa jira, gaar ahaan, fikradda ah in kharashka Maraykanka Shale wax soo saarka saliidda ee 2014 ayaa hoos u dhacay si ka badan in industry ee American for saaridda ee "dahabka madow", in mabda, Waxba igama gelin waxa qiimaha adduunka hadda alaabta this. haddii ay tahay xalaal ahayn? Maxay yihiin arrimaha saameeya qiimaha saliidda Shale shirkadaha American?

Waa maxay saliid Shale

First, a digression yar teori in arrinta mawduuca. Waa maxay saliid Shale? Qiimaha Qiimaha sheyga aynu doonayno inaynu u ogaado?

Xaqiiqada ah in ay jiraan dhab ahaan jira laba nooc oo saliid lagu heli karaa af Ruush on nin ee heerka jidka magac caadi ah - "Suuliyada". First - taasi waa wax soo saarka ah in, iyo sidoo kale ka mid ah in la soo saaray ee jidka classical, waxaa ku jira lakabka gaar ah noocyada dhulka. Waxaa loo yaqaan "kamma". Laakiin waxaa jira wax soo saarka kale. Under nooca ku haboon oo saliid ah ayaa sidoo kale loo fahmi karaa kamma sida, sidoo kale loo yaqaan "ololi kara". Waxay yihiin, dhab ahaantii, waxay ka kooban tahay wax soo saarka ah guryaha aad u la mid ah saliidda - saliid Shale. Oo waxaa sidoo kale by farsamooyinka qaarkood soo kabsaday oo sakhiray in processing.

Sidaas darteed, ereyga "saliid Shale" waxaa loo fasiri karaa saddex siyaabood. kuwaas oo:

- sida isku micne ah "saliid Shale";

- analoogga ugu dhow ee nooca dhaqanka oo saliid ah, laakiin waxa ay ka dhacdaa nooc kala duwan ee beeraha;

- ka cusbi Shale bixiyay.

Sida wax soo saarka, kaas oo shidaal la-macmalay karo, loo isticmaalo, sidaas, labaad iyo saddexaad. Ka hor inta baadhaya kharashka wax soo saarka saliidda Shale, aynu la soco in tiro ka mid ah khubarada waa aragtida ah in kharashka la xiriira helitaanka kasta oo ka mid ah laba Badeecada kor ku xusan si weyn u kala duwanaan karaan. Sida caadiga ah, saliid ka Shale saliid, qaalisan helay.

Halkee been saliid Shale?

La tixgaliyo arrimaha saameeya qiimaha saliidda Shale, waxaan ku baran doonaa waxyaabaha gaarka ah ee kayd, kaas oo shaqada la xiriira. Sida ay sheegayaan warar ka mid ah tiro ka mid ah hay'adaha gorfaynta, United States - hogaamiyaha dunida ee kaydka ah ee khayraadka dabiiciga ah, ee su'aasha. Ugu weyn ee beeraha saliid, la xiriira Shale category, jiifsan Maraykanka ee gobolka Texas, ee dhulka ee xeebta galbeed iyo waqooyi-bari ee dalka. Sidoo kale kaydka weyn ee waxa loogu yeero "sands saliid", kaasoo ku yaala Kanada.

Waxaa jira kayd muhiim ah "Shale" iyo dalal kale oo badan oo adduunka ah, oo ay ku jiraan in Russia, iyo sidoo kale dalalka kuwa u muuqda ma ogtahay awoodaha maanta tamarta - Slovakia, Poland, Ukraine. Qiimaynta ee ka iman kara saliid ka soo kabsaday Shale ka mid ah khubarada aad u sinnayn. Inta badan ay sabab u tahay xaqiiqada ah in tirooyinka oo u oggolaan waayo, Analytics oo tayo sare leh, oo aan had iyo jeer hufan, saadaasha hay'adaha kala duwan line, ka tarjumaysa, gaar ahaan, xaddiga kaydka oo duurka ku, waxaa laga yaabaa in aan sax ahayn ama si joogta ah dib loo eegay.

tilmaamayaasha kharashka

Si aad u ogaato waxa laga yaabaa in qiimaha lagu qiyaasay oo saliid ah Shale dalka Maraykanka, waxaannu u jeesanaynaa dadka tiro ka mid ah ilaha khabiir. macluumaad Published on waxbarashada ku habboon laga sameeyey sano kala duwan, ina siinaysaa ah xogta aad u isku qasan. Waa maxay sababta? Waa run in qiimaha wax soo saarka saliidda Shale Mareykanka waa si toos ah ay ku xidhan tahay nooc hoosaadka ee wax soo saarka (kor, waan aqoonsannay laba ugu weyn)? Iyada oo ku saleysan macluumaadka ku jira tiro ka mid ah ilaha, waa.

In 2012, Time magazine daabacay xogta soo socda. Waxay yihiin, si kastaba ha ahaatee, waxay khuseeyaan isbeddellada caalamka. Si kastaba ha ahaatee, fikrad ah waxa laga yaabaa in qiimaha saliidda Shale oo dalka Mareykanka ah, macluumaadkan inoo siin karaa.

Sida ay sheegayaan qiyaasaha khabiir, ku salaysan kuwaas oo Time magazine daabacay tirooyinka, wax soo saarka ee 1 foosto oo saliid ah ka Shale saliidda ee 2012 waxa ay ku saabsan $ 100. Taa baddalkeeda, index ee saliidda ku been u dhaxaysa layers ah, mana ka badan toona yar, oo ka yar ka badan kala badh - 50 doolar. Sayidka, ka hadlay noo by bilowgii maqaalka fikradda ah in qiimaha saliidda Shale ee Maraykanka iyo dalalka kale ay ku xiran tahay nooc hoosaadka gaarka ah ee wax soo saarka la xaqiijiyay, haddii aan qaato xogta ah ee sanadka 2012.

Oil ee Maraykanka iyo adduunka oo dhan

Haddii aan is barbar dhig heerka calaamadeysan sannad la mid ah kuwa ka tarjumaya qiimaha wax soo saarka noocan ah ee macdanta ee Russia, farqiga u, xataa in ay dhacdo wax soo saarka jaban noqon doonaa cad. "Qadiimiga ah" saliid bixiyay in Russia ku qiimihiisu yahay $ 15. Oo Sacuudi Carabiya, iyadoo jidka ag fadhida, oo waa ka raqiisan - oo ku saabsan 8. Si kastaba ha ahaatee, in ka badan, kuwaas oo dhan tirooyinka iyo fikradaha khubarada fido. Sidaa darteed, waa tilmaan qiyaas ah oo keliya.

Waa maxay xogta more dhawaan, sanadka socda? Kordhinta ama qeybsanaan ku xigeenka, ayaa hoos u dhacay qiimaha lagu qiyaasay wax soo saarka saliidda Shale US? 2014 - sannadda dhaca ku yimid qiimaha adduunka for "dahabka madow". Ma waxaa jira xiriir ka dhexeeya xawaaraha saliidda Shale oo arrimuhu suuqa this?

Fikradaha khubarada ah ee mowduucan waa cajiib ah oo kala duwan. First of dhan, habka aad u kala duwan oo ku tirinayo kharashka. Criterion keena ugu weyn dood - canshuurta ka fiirsato.

Leh ama aan lahayn canshuurta?

dhaqaaleyahannada qaar ayaa xisaabo intay ku kacayso ee Shale saliidda ee dalka Mareykanka, oo diiradda saaraya xaqiiqada ah in ay wax soo saarka ku xiran yahay canshuurta ugu yar. Si kastaba ha ahaatee, marka la eego wax soo saarka la mid ah soo saaray hab dhaqanka, waxaa lagama maarmaan ah in ay bixiyaan lacagaha oo dhan. Faa'iidooyinka waa hufan ee la xiriirta Shale saliid. In Russia, tusaale ahaan, iyo sidoo kale in dalal kale oo badan, dhoofinta ah "dahabka madow", oo u dhiganta lacag kor ku xusan.

Haddii ay Mareykanka iyo dalalka kale ee tilmaamayaasha canshuuraha ahaayeen dhigma, ka dibna, xitaa haddii aan qaadan tirokoobyada ee 2012, sida laga soo xigtay khubaro, saliidda American lahaa a kharashka aad u qurux badnayn. Haddaba Suuliyada alaabta ka soo USA, ay sabab u tahay gargaarka canshuurta run ahaantii waxay noqon kartaa, falanqeeyayaasha ayaa sidaa leh, kharashka ku dhawaad $ 50 ama ka yar.

Taa baddalkeeda, waxaa jira aragti in nooca habboon ee lagu eedeeyay in khasnadda Maraykanka - Faraj taas oo aan la taaban karo marka la eego tirinta on kharashka saliid, sida wax soo saarka Suuliyada soo saaray dalka Maraykanka, inta badan diiradda lagu saaray suuqa guryaha. Iyo sababta oo ah canshuur-American isu "ogolaan" isu shidaal oo raqiis ah.

Warku si loo yareeyo kharashka?

Ka mid ah khubarada waa sha in muddo sannado ah oo dalka Mareykanka ah qiimaha saliidda Shale dhaco. The salaysan muran ka - hagaajinta workability-soo-saarka. Fikradaha khubaro ku saabsan arrintan ayaa sidoo kale kala qaybsan. Waxaa jira qiyaaso sida uu sheegay oo foosto oo saliid ah Shale ayaa hadda aad ujecel Americans ku saabsan $ 48 - Oo waa ku run ahaantii ka hooseeya celceliska dunida, falanqeeyayaasha diiwaangeliyey 2012. Laakiin habeeyaa sicir - mabda ', waxaa dalbanaayo in hoos u of kharashka wax soo saarka. Haddii aan, dabcan, isku raacsan yihiin in tirada ee Maraykanka ee 2012 waxay ahayd la mid ah sida celceliska dunida oo dhan (ka dib oo dhan, Maraykanka - hogaamiyaha boqorada suuqa caalamka). Mar kale, haddii aanu qaadan tixgelin saliidda ka geyi-bixiyay, oo aan ka Shale ay processing.

faa'iidada of-soo-saarka iyo qiimaha saliidda

Sidee qiimaha saliidda Shale oo dalka Mareykanka ah, dalalka kale iyo qiimaha adduunka for "dahabka madow"? Fikradaha khubaro ah, iyo waqtigan waa mid aad u duwana. Laakiin waxaa muhiim ah in iyaga wax ka barato si aad u ogaato jidkooda ee arrimaha saameeya qiimaha saliidda Shale. 2014 sidoo kale waa ay qarsoon yihiin marka la eego qiimaha saliidda. Hadda waxay si weyn hoos u dhacay. koritaanka Will - kaliya hal ninna odhan karin.

Falanqeeyayaal OPEC, gaar ahaan, waxay aaminsan yihiin in haddii qiimaha saliidda dunida muddo dheer weli ka hooseyn doonaan 90 doolar halkii foosto, ka dibna si shaqada ee qeybta "Shale" Maraykanka shirkadaha noqon doonaa wax tar lahayn. Taa baddalkeeda, khubarada IHS aaminsan yihiin in ganacsiga dhawri doonaa dantiisa wax soo saarka saliidda, xataa haddii qiimaha dunida ku dhacaan 57 doolar halkii foosto. tanaasulka Qaar ka mid ah qiimeynta dalabyada, Agency Energy Caalamiga ah. Sida laga soo xigtay khubaro ah qaab-dhismeedka this, ka fiirsato oo saliid ah Shale ee US waxay noqon doontaa arrin faa'iido haddii qiimaha dunida ma dhici hoos $ 80 halkii foosto. Falanqeeyayaal Citigroup, markeeda, waxay aaminsan yihiin in ay u ilaaliyaan ah "Suuliyada" warshadaha ee dalka Mareykanka waxay noqon doontaa heerka ku filan oo 75 doolar.

Waxaa jira version xiiso leh: haddii qiimaha saliidda adduunka hoos u dhici doonto, shirkadaha Maraykanka, soo saara "dahabka madow" hal hab doono ama mid kale, lagu qasbay in ay casriyayso salka farsamada si ay u jaro dhaqaalaha. Khubarada kuwaas oo ku dhow in view this yihiin ayaa rumaysan in industry "saliid Shale" ay leedahay awood weyn oo arrintan la xiriira. technology jira, waxay aaminsan yihiin, in badan oo tijaabo ah iyo tiro ka mid ah dhinacyada kala duwan ee ku oolnimada yihiin liita xataa kuwa loo isticmaalo wax soo saarka saliidda habka dhaqanka. Waqti ka, falanqeeyayaasha ayaa sidaa leh, Americans wuxuu kordhin doonaa wax workability ah. Sababo la this qiimaha saliidda Shale oo dalka Mareykanka ah waxaa laga yaabaa in ay saameeyeen. Sida laga soo xigtay qiimayn hay'ad Accenture, kharashka la xiriira dhici karaan 40%.

Foosto waa koraan

Anyway, waxaa ka mid ah khubarada waa dhibic caadiga ah ee view: xataa haddii Maraykanka Shale kharashka wax soo saarka saliidda ku saabsan yahay $ 50, oo ay wax soo saarka sii joogi doonaa, si kasta, waxtar buu u leeyahay shirkadaha Maraykanka. Laakiin ka yar hal xaalad - halka sicirka saliidda agagaarka hadda bilowga xagaaga 2014 - qiyaastii $ 110 halkii foosto. Markaas oo keliya ma ay yeelan doonaan in ay ka fikirto sida loo yareeyo kharashka saliid Shale. $ 80, si kastaba ha ahaatee, - qiimaha hadda "dahabka madow". Taasi waa, haddii mid ka mid dhaqmayso view this, shirkadaha American hadda ayaa qarka u saaran ee faa'iidada. About kacay mass ee shirkadaha weli idinkoo xukumaya by macluumaadka asalka ah ee warbaahinta, weli ma aha.

qodobada kharashka

Waa sidee, saliid Shale oo la soo saaray xaaladaha maxay? Qiimaha Qiimaha Waa maxay waxyaabaha ka go'an ku salaysan content ee geeddi-soo-saarka ee ka fiirsato of "dahabka madow"?

Ka mid ah la taaban karo marka la eego qarashka duruufaha - nolosha oo ceelasha. Xaqiiqada ah in Shale saliidna miino by technology ahaanba ka duwan tahay marka la barbardhigo horumarinta kayd dhaqanka. Sida caadiga ah, ka shaqeeya off ka mid ah iyo sidoo kale waa dhowr jeer ka dhakhsi. Iyo sababta oo ah qalabka la geliyo wax soo saarka saliidda Shale, ugu dhaqsaha badan ka dib markii horumarinta khayraadka maxalliga ah waa in ay sidoo kale qori off sabab u xiran, ama inuu u dhaqaaqo shay kale. Tani, dabcan, waxaa la socon kara by kharashka badan.

Arrin kale oo - qoto dheer ee Shale saliidda. Iyo sidoo kale in ay helaan biyo nadiif ah oo u dhow, oo ku hawllan yahay ka fiirsato of "dahabka madow" la adeegsiga tiknolojiyada ku haboon. Iyadoo ku xiran si qoto dheer ee kharashka khayraadka si weyn u kala duwanaan karaan.

The factor weyn ee soo socota - kaydka Shale qiimaha qiimaynta filnaanshaha. Waxaa laga yaabaa in maalgelin ku sameeyey oo ku saleysan saadaasha rajo aadan haysan waqti ay ku bixiso in view of xaqiiqda ah in saliid si fudud loo soo afjaro at beer gaar ah. Waxaa jira tusaale xiiso leh - in Los Angeles Times soo baxay daabacaadda, kaas oo sheegay in mid ka mid ah beeraha saliidda ee statements mustaqbalka eegaya California ee iyo dhabta kala 25 jeer.

Arrin kale oo - joogitaanka xaafadda la kayd mid ah keydadka gaaska Shale. Xaqiiqada ah in, sida laga soo xigtay qaar kamid ah qabiirada, iyo sidoo kale qaab-dhismeedka noqon kartaa faa'iidada, oo kaliya haddii laga soo saari doonaa labada nooc ee shidaalka.

Rajada for "kacaanka Shale"

Si kastaba ha ahaatee, iyadoo aan loo eegin waxa lambarada matasho qiimaha of Shale saliidda ee dalka Mareykanka, 2013 iyo 2014 tilmaamay fiirsato Americans ah soo orday oo ah macdanta by ilo kale.

Sida laga soo xigtay saadaasha khubaro kala duwan iyo maamulka, tilmaamayaasha kori doono oo keliya in sannadaha soo socda. Tusaale ahaan, Maamulka Xogta Tamarta (mid ka mid ah xafiisyada laanta Maraykanka ah) ayaa aaminsan in in 2019-soo-saarka saliidda Shale ee Maraykanka gaari doonaan 9.5 million oo barmiil maalintii (hadda - 3 million).

arrimaha ay tahay si looga hortago laga yaabaa in shirkadaha ka Maraykanka si loo horumariyo ka mid ah - hore u xusay noo by saraysa isbadalkii waxaa u Sugnaaday Qayb ka yar ee kayd kale. Haddii deposit caadiga ah la soo saari karaa sanado badan, heerka caadiga ah ee Shale - 3-5 sano. Inta lagu jiro wakhtigan, saliidda ee khayraadka ceelka la dhammaaday waxaa laga yaabaa in ay 90% ama in ka badan.

Saadaaliyo xataa khubaro Maraykan ah oo naftiisa ku saabsan rajada horumarka "Shale" waa mid aad u kala duwan. Tusaale A fudud. Taasi waa Maamulka Xogta Tamarta saadaalinaysaa in mid ka mid ah kayd ugu weyn ee US - Bakken - 2040-soo-saarka oo saliid ah Shale noqon doonaa oo ku saabsan 1 milyan oo barmiil maalintii. Isla mar ahaantaana, sida ay sheegtay laanta qiimaynta machadka Post Carbon, tilmaame, waayo, Bakken waa in aan ka badnayn 73 kun. Barmiil. Farqiga in saadaasha ah - in ka badan uducaynaya. Waxaa jira isdhaaf ah ee u dhexeeya qiyaasta oo ka mid ah laba dhismo iyo sidoo kale in la ixtiraamo kaydka qaar ka mid ah saliidda Shale ee California. By habka, xaaladaha qaarkood, Maamulka Xogta Tamarta si weyn dib u saadaasha ay beeraha saliid. In mid ka mid ah kiiska, ku qiimaysay oo la dhimay by 96%. Si kastaba ha ahaatee, sida uu u sheegay qaar ka mid ah khubarada, maal, go'aan ku saabsan sida in ay maal-warshadaha, waxaa loo hanuunin lahaa in saadaasha ugu horeysay.

Si kastaba ha ahaatee, khubarada aan ku boorinayaa in ay ku boodaan si ay gunaanad iyo saadaasha. Waxaa lagama maarmaan ah si ay u dhawraan sida ay u horumarin doontaa technology ugu fiican si loo hubiyo in a ool ah iyo, ugu muhiimsan, wax soo saarka ee alaabta a bii'ada. Qodobka ugu muhiimsan ee horumarinta warshadaha American horumarinta kayd kale oo "dahabka madow" sicirka saliidda ayaa sidoo kale caalamka doono.